The mathematics of socio‑political transitions
FICSS develops Computational Macrohistory: stochastic models of large-scale historical change that estimate probability distributions over critical transitions, with explicit limits on what can be predicted.
When do societies become unstable? CMH treats the question as applied mathematics.
One framework, built in the open across a numbered working paper series. Three lines of work.
Axiomatic foundations
Eight axioms (A1 to A8) define which models of historical systems are scientifically admissible. On top of them sits a 25-dimensional state space and a three-level architecture, from composite indices to full stochastic dynamics.
Empirical analysis
Structural stress indices applied to historical panel data, with calibration and uncertainty quantification throughout. The Systemic Stress Index classified 8 of 11 MENA countries correctly at the 2010 pre-event benchmark, and the misses are analysed in as much detail as the hits.
Spectral methods
Koopman operator theory and dynamic mode decomposition, applied to what lies beyond the predictive horizon: persistent cyclic structures in historical dynamics, identified at the level where chaos no longer destroys the signal.
Every prediction has a horizon. For complex social systems, that horizon is set by chaos theory, and no amount of data or computing power can push it back. But what lies beyond the Lyapunov Wall is not silence.
Recent output
WP-2026-006 Now published – June 2026Independent, open, falsifiable
FICSS was founded in 2019 in Milano. Everything the institute produces is open access: working papers carry a DOI on Zenodo, replication materials live on GitHub, and the introductory guides bring the framework to readers with no technical background.
A claim that cannot be derived from the axioms is flagged as such. An estimate without a confidence interval does not leave the building.
More about FICSS →Stefano Angeli
Develops the CMH framework: stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems, statistical inference and operator-theoretic methods applied to socio-political transitions.